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<h2>Why shallow optimizations stall product teams, and where deeper leverage actually lives. </h2>Most product teams operate at the surface.They adjust the roadmap, tune metrics, and reorganize rituals. But these moves often fail to produce meaningful change. That is because the real drivers of behavior and performance are structural. They are embedded in how the system is designed, how feedback flows, and what the system is ultimately trying to achieve.This article applies Donella Meadows’ "12 Leverage Points" to product strategy. It explores how to identify intervention points that actually shift outcomes. Topics include feedback loops, information structure, system goals, and the mental models that shape decision-making.You will find examples from urban transit, cloud platforms, and organizational behavior. The full version includes visuals, tables, and specific patterns that help product leaders focus their energy on what matters most.Read the full version here: 🔗 <a data-mce-href="https://sdaken.substack.com/p/real-leverage-lives-under-the-roadmap" href="https://sdaken.substack.com/p/real-leverage-lives-under-the-roadmap" title="Real Leverage Lives Under the Roadmap" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-mce-selected="inline-boundary">Read on Substack</a> <figure id="figure-f0hhanv83maaoevul" class=""><img id="f0hhanv83maaoevul" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/2eEIeNdjIPCyCOhJbVRcXBsEgQKFZxppPPNmRhvngBBbaWg9URsR2qAp2ZFFh3N6.png" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-2xl md:rounded-3xl lg:rounded-4xl" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/2eEIeNdjIPCyCOhJbVRcXBsEgQKFZxppPPNmRhvngBBbaWg9URsR2qAp2ZFFh3N6.png" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>

Real Leverage Lives Under the Roadmap

Post-mortems are fine. We've all done them. They serve a purpose. Something broke, someone documents it, and maybe, if you're lucky, the insight gets applied before the next failure. In reality most organizations don't have the instiutionalized discipline or systematic rigor to institutionalize insights into preventative action. Exceptions for orgs in high-stakes markets (medical devices, airlines, nuclear, etc.), and even those have their issues.But in many cases, that moment comes too late.If you are dealing with high-stakes strategy, product bets, cross-functional launches, or anything where there is no second shot, or there's major material and/or reputational risk if you miss, you cant afford to treat reflection as a post-facto formality.That is where pre-mortems come in.At Map &amp; Vector, we use pre-mortems as a practical tool to surface blind spots, reduce overconfidence, and stress-test strategy before the damage is done. No crystal balls and miminal drama. Just structured, retrospective thinking from a hypothetical future where everything went wrong.This isn't a workshop about fear. It's not another ivory tower risk analysis exercise. It is a system-level gut check that forces your team to be honest about what could go sideways, who owns the risk, and what needs to change before moving forward.<h3>When to Use a Pre-Mortem</h3><ul><li>Before launching a new product or platform</li><li>During strategic planning cycles</li><li>Ahead of major cross-functional initiatives</li><li>When too many people are saying “this can’t fail” &nbsp;<h3>Why It Works</h3></li><li>Pre-mortems shift the conversation from prediction to pressure testing.</li><li>Teams stop theorizing and start noticing what they are glossing over.</li><li>You get a more honest signal.</li><li>You catch the variables everyone assumed someone else was managing.</li></ul>The best part? You are still on schedule. Nothing has failed yet. There is still time to adapt.<h3>Why It Fails</h3><ul><li>The exercise is too abstract </li><li>The right people are not in the room </li><li>Nobody follows through </li><li>It gets treated like a box to check, not a signal to act &nbsp; If you’re building something that matters and want to know where it’s likely to break, a pre-mortem is the fastest way to find out.</li></ul>Let’s talk.&nbsp;<figure id="figure-mtilojffy7m9uj0h39"><img id="mtilojffy7m9uj0h39" src="https://cdn.durable.co/covers/14ISKxBWN3WR02YASUYPswD20Nv3yuaUOrT80dpX4ANhOVq7oEeRI16bMDAzDnSR.png" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-2xl md:rounded-3xl lg:rounded-4xl" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionX="undefined" data-positionY="undefined" data-fullWidth="false"/></figure>

Pre-Mortems: A Better Way to Catch Failure Early

Tariffs everywhere. Prices rising. Markets falling. Pressure building on supply chains. And now, turmoil in the labor market, with waves of layoffs across the federal government and continued job losses in the private sector, especially in tech, driven by relentless cost-cutting and AI-related restructuring (yes, still hashtag#OpenToWork).Good times, right? Surprising? Not really.When I saw the announcement of China's retaliatory 34% tariff on U.S. goods this morning, I found myself wondering: why were so many caught off guard? The warning signs have been flashing for months, including escalating trade rhetoric, early policy signals from Project 2025, and an increasingly brittle global economy. This isn’t a Black Swan. It’s a Gray Swan. The signals were obvious. The real failure was in not acting on what foresight revealed.The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that all available information is already reflected in asset prices and that markets, in effect, see clearly and respond rationally. In theory, events like this shouldn’t catch anyone off guard. But clearly, they did. Others have pointed out the gap between theory and reality. Nassim Taleb has written extensively about this: how markets are prone to overconfidence, blind to “fat tail” risks, and more vulnerable to narrative traps than we like to admit. In that view, market efficiency is a useful idea, but one that often collapses under pressure when uncertainty and complexity surge.&nbsp;Strategic foresight isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about asking better questions, stress-testing assumptions, and planning for multiple plausible outcomes. When I studied foresight formally, one of the core principles that stuck with me was this: don’t get trapped by the most convenient narrative, however compelling it might be. Plan for volatility before it arrives. I’ve learned, sometimes the hard way, how difficult that can be, in organizations and in life.We see this pattern again and again. Teams optimize for efficiency, not adaptability. They build for what they hope will happen, not for what could. When disruption hits, it’s rarely because the signals weren’t there. It’s because we chose not to see them.So why weren’t these shifts priced in? Why did so few organizations model the second- and third-order effects of rising trade barriers? And what would it take to design systems, whether financial, organizational, or otherwise, that are actually prepared for (or hashtag#antifragile to) volatility? Markets are reacting now, but the conditions that created this moment have been building for some time. The signals were visible.&nbsp;Of course, hindsight is always easier than foresight. But that’s the point, right?<figure id="figure-nxxyehye6bm9m9dqom" class=""><img id="nxxyehye6bm9m9dqom" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/246kSq20OZSyp7EzF8uKYnxBTIXwyAR1oTqVFAesywn63IAC75hY1z67wP8AQ7yT.jpg" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-2xl md:rounded-3xl lg:rounded-4xl" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/246kSq20OZSyp7EzF8uKYnxBTIXwyAR1oTqVFAesywn63IAC75hY1z67wP8AQ7yT.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>Photo Credit: Copyright © 2007, 2025 Sean Daken.

Efficient markets? Not so fast.

Map & Vector

Map & Vector is the independent strategy practice of Sean Daken, specializing in fractional product leadership, embedded strategic operations, and executive insight for high-growth teams and complex organizations. Offering diagnostic clarity and hands-on execution, Map & Vector helps founders and executive teams navigate uncertainty, align around priorities, and move forward with confidence.

Sean Daken - Principal, Map & Vector

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Real Leverage Lives Under the Roadmap

Pre-Mortems: A Better Way to Catch Failure Early

Efficient markets? Not so fast.